Thabametsi coal plant given go ahead despite staggering climate impacts | Credible Carbon

https://www.crediblecarbon.com/news-and-info/news/thabametsi-coal-plant-given-go-ahead-despite-staggering-climate-impacts/

Minister of Environmental Affairs, Edna Molewa

On 30 January 2018, Edna Molewa, the minister of environmental affairs, issued a long-awaited decision in relation to the environmental authorisation for the Thabametsi coal-fired power station. The Minister has decided that – despite the undisputed evidence of the significant climate impacts of the power station, and a landmark judgment of the High Court last year, setting aside the authorisation – the Thabametsi environmental authorisation will remain in place. This leaves civil society organisations with no choice but to return to court to challenge the minister’s decision.

Thabametsi – as a preferred bidder under the Coal Baseload Independent Power Producers Procurement Programme – still needs to obtain further required licences and authorisations in order to reach financial and commercial close under the programme, which appears to be on hold pending the finalisation of the Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity (IRP).

The minister’s decision follows the landmark High Court judgment in March 2017, in favour of Earthlife Africa Johannesburg (ELA), in which the High Court confirmed that a climate change impact assessment is a necessary part of an environmental impact assessment for a coal-fired power station. The minister was ordered to reconsider Thabametsi’s environmental authorisation, but with a climate change impact assessment, and to decide whether the power station can go ahead.

In June 2017, Thabametsi made its final climate impact assessment available for consideration and comment. This assessment revealed that the plant would have staggering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; that climate change will pose significant risks for the power station in terms of limited water availability and temperature increases; and that these impacts cannot be substantially mitigated.

In fact, in her decision, the minister points out that her advisors EOH Coastal and Environmental Services (EOH) – which conducted a peer review of Thabametsi’s climate change impact assessment – indicated that “the significant risk relating to GHG emissions could be very high” and pointed out that “emissions risks are very high and water scarcity risks are high and … the very high GHG emission levels associated with the project implies a high social cost.”

The minister, in her decision, says “while the environmental and social costs associated with the proposed power station are high, this does not necessarily represent a fatal flaw, provided that the benefits are justified and can be motivated” (these are the conclusions of the EOH review); and, “Having carefully balanced all relevant factors (including the threat of climate change), the final IRP 2010–2030 does not prohibit the establishment of new coal-fired power stations. Rather it permits that 6,3 GW of new generation capacity may be derived from coal”; and she is satisfied that “the overall assessment of the risks and impacts associated with the GHG emissions and climate change vulnerabilities is systematic, realistic, conservative and not understated”.

Makoma Lekalakala of ELA, which together with the Centre for Environmental Rights (CER) and groundWorkforms part of the Life After Coal/Impilo Ngaphandle Kwamalahle Campaign, says ELA is shocked that the minister will allow Thabametsi to go ahead when the climate change impact assessment clearly shows the devastating impacts that the power station will have, and despite South Africa’s international commitments to reduce GHG emissions. This is a clear indication that the Minister does not take South Africa’s commitments to limit temperature increase to 1,5 or even 2°C, seriously.

The EOH peer review confirms that the risks of harm are very high – actually pointing out that the climate change impact assessment should have classified the GHG emissions impact as “very high”, rather than “high”. Despite this, EOH claims that this does not necessarily present a fatal flaw, provided the benefits are justified and can be motivated. “Yet the Minister’s only reason for allowing this project is that it would be aligned with the IRP 2010. Reliance on an extremely-outdated document that is under review can never be a sufficient justification to cause irreversible damages to our air, water, and climate,” says Elana Greyling of ELA and a resident of Lephalale, where the power station would be built.

South Africa’s own climate change response policy confirms that South Africa is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and that the energy sector is the largest contributor to South Africa’s GHG emissions and their climate change impacts.

This decision comes at a time when South Africa is revising its IRP and with a growing body of research from institutions such as Meridian Economics and the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, showing that no new coal power capacity is needed in South Africa (this includes Thabametsi and the other preferred bidder, the proposed Khanyisa coal-fired power station). South Africa’s electricity needs can be met – at least-cost – with renewable energy, which does not have the climate, health, and water impacts of coal plants such as Thabametsi. Bobby Peek of groundWork says that the IRP 2010 does not reflect South Africa’s current electricity reality – the country currently has surplus electricity capacity and renewables are now much cheaper than coal-based electricity.

The previous minister of energy indicated in a media release of 1 September 2017 that all future IPP programmes were on hold, pending the new IRP. The Life After Coal Campaign maintains that Minister Molewa should, at least, have awaited the revised IRP before making her decision.

CER attorney Nicole Loser says that on the face of it, the minister’s decision is neither reasonable nor rational. In the circumstances, ELA has no option but to return to court to challenge the minister’s decision.

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South Africa’s Electricity Choice, Part 3: Decentralised power generation is the pathway to ‘energy democrac y’ | Daily Maverick

South Africa’s Electricity Choice, Part 3: Decentralised power generation is the pathway to ‘energy democracy’

  • ANTON EBERHARD & AMORY LOVINS
  • SOUTH AFRICA
  • 15 FEB 2018 12:05 (SOUTH AFRICA)

Here is the full article

New nuclear power lacks a business case for South Africa, whichever country provides the technology.
There is no rational basis for policy to discriminate against efficiency and renewables.

By ANTON EBERHARD and AMORY LOVINS.

Read parts 1 and 2 of this series here and here. A fourth chapter will follow

The global nuclear industry faces major challenges – there are significant risks of project failure or abandonment and their massive installation costs, construction and operational difficulties result in delays as well as huge financial losses for investors. Of the 259 US nuclear plants ordered between 1955 and 2016, only 28 units (some of which are slated for closure) remain economically viable to date and 49% – almost half – were abandoned before start up. Renewable energy, on the other hand, is growing in popularity around the world.

Reliability of renewable energy

A regular critique of renewable energy made by proponents of nuclear power is that it is unreliable – the wind does not always blow and the sun does not always shine. However, the objective function of the computer model – PLEXOS – used to prepare South Africa’s IRPs is a least-cost, optimal generation mix that meets a specified security of supply each hour of the day throughout the year. The latest IRP2017 modelled by Eskom also records that there is sufficient “dispatchable power” to fully cover peak demand.

The IRP 2017 incorporates concentrated solar power plants procured in the first three renewable energy auctions. While this power source is still regarded as expensive in South Africa, global developments indicate that it is becoming increasingly competitive. Night-time solar power from stored solar heat – similar to the 9.3 hours of thermal storage in South Africa’s new Bokpoort solar plant in the Northern Cape – sells in Chile for 9.7 US¢/kWh, one-half above the day-time solar price (6.5¢) but one-third below the EU nuclear price (~13–15+¢).

But even without bulk electrical or thermal storage, wind and PV’s accurately forecastable variability can readily be managed by approximately several proven methods that are generally profitable in their own right. This is not just a theoretical possibility but well proven in practice. In 2014, four EU countries not rich in hydropower, met about half their electricity needs from renewables (Spain 46%, Scotland 50%, Denmark 59%, Portugal 64%) without increasing bulk storage or decreasing reliability. They run their grids as a conductor leads an orchestra: no instrument plays all the time, but the ensemble continuously produces beautiful music. Similarly, renewables met 33% of Italy’s 2014 electricity needs, 27% of Germany’s, 22% of Ireland’s, 20% of France’s, and 19% of Britain’s. Most of these renewable fractions continued their upward progress in 2015 and 2016, generally accompanied by increasing reliability of grid supply and by moderating or decreasing wholesale electricity prices (often overlooked by those who focus on high retail prices in a few countries, notably Denmark and Germany, where long-standing policy heavily taxes household electricity).

Eskom’s financial crisis and the viability of coal-fired power in South Africa | Credible Carbon

Eskom’s financial crisis and the viability of coal-fired power in South Africa

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Meridian Economics published a report recently on Eskom’s financial crisis and the decreasing demand for electricity while its costs continue to rise dramatically, driven primarily by its new-build programme. This is the executive summary of the report.

The South African power system has reached a crossroads. Eskom, the national power utility, is experiencing an unprecedented period of demand stagnation and decline, while having simultaneously embarked on an enormous, coal-fired power station construction programme (Medupi 4764 MW and Kusile 4800 MW) which has been plagued with delays and cost over-runs. This has forced Eskom to implement the highest tariff increases in recorded history and has led to a crisis in its financial viability and, at the time of writing, a liquidity crisis (Groenewald & Yelland, 2017).

Click here to download the full report