Category Archives: Policy & Planning

Include IEP, IRP etc

Analysis: South Africa is stuck in a failing second industrial revolution – Let’s move beyond it

Daily Maverick, dirk de Vos, 24 May, 2017

Last week, another busy news week in South Africa, saw two significant events. The one was the announcement by General Motors (GM) that after 90 years, it was pulling out of South Africa. The other was the presentation by the new Minister of Energy of her department’s budget speech. Both events elicited strong debate. GM’s decision has been variously ascribed to South Africa’s poor governance and the country’s newly acquired “junk credit status”. The Minister of Energy’s speech confirmed a long-standing commitment to the development of the oil sector, renewed an effort to get a gas economy going and to get nuclear procurement back on track. Renewable energy procurement, the one outstanding success of her department, gets to be moved under the very poorly performing Central Energy Fund and the whole programme gets to be reviewed. Both events highlight the continual failure of South Africa’s industrial policy and a singular failure of even imagining anything better. By DIRK DE VOS.

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Nersa may probe whether Eskom’s refusal to sign renewables PPAs contravened licence

Engineering NEws, 11 May, 2017

he electricity subcommittee of the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) will recommend that the Energy Regulator institute a formal investigation into a complaint that Eskom was flouting the conditions of its licence by refusing to conclude power purchase agreements (PPAs) for 37 renewable-energyprojects procured by the Department of Energy.

Spokesperson Charles Hlebela said the next meeting of the Energy Regulator would take place on May 25, and confirmed that, at its meeting on May 3, Nersa’s electricity subcommittee had endorsed the probe, following a preliminary investigation. Should it proceed, the subcommittee wants Mbulelo Ncetezo, the regulator member responsible for electricity, to chair the probe.

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Structure of the market needs to be revised to ensure least-cost energy

BusinessDay, Anton Eberhard, 9 May, 2017

The battle for SA’s nuclear and energy future is not over. While many South Africans welcomed the decision by the High Court in Cape Town setting aside international nuclear energy treaties and declaring the government’s nuclear procurement programme unlawful and unconstitutional, President Jacob Zuma and his allies have not given up. Ultimately, the structure of SA’s power market will need to change to ensure an optimal and least-cost energy mix.

Reforming the power sector will be the more important struggle.

Unfortunately, the court’s nuclear decisions were essentially around procedural issues and it declined to rule on substantive matters, such as the rationality of procuring nuclear power when the government’s own updated electricity plan says it is not needed.

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A Summary of The Nuclear Deal, Why It Failed and What This Means For South Africa.

Global Carbon Exchange, 5 May, 2017

Everyone should know that, for now anyway, the programme has effectively been sent back to the drawing board (hopefully not that same one that “crafted” the last programme).

Perhaps a bit of history is needed to get to grips with all the failings of the Nuclear Programme.

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CSIR proposes electricity mix for IRP 2016 which excludes nuclear power

Daily Maverick, Jarrad G. Wright, Tobias Bischof-Niemz, Joanne Calitz, Crescent Mushwana, Robbie van Heerden and Mamahloko Senatla, CSIR, 2 May, 2017

As part of the IRP update process, the DoE engages in a multi-stage stakeholder engagement process (including public engagements) to ensure all affected stakeholders are consulted including national and local government, business, organised labour and civil society. This document contains the CSIR’s formal comments on the draft IRP 2016.

The CSIR determined the least cost, unconstrained electricity mix by 2050 as input into the IRP 2016 public consultation process. A conservative approach is always taken where pessimistic assumptions for new technologies and optimistic assumptions for established technologies are always made. More specifically; conventional technologies (coal, nuclear, gas Capex) were as per IRP 2016, stationary storage technologies (batteries) were as per IRP 2016, natural gas fuel costs were assumed slightly more expensive than IRP 2016, solar PV was aligned with original IRP 2010 cost assumptions while wind is kept constant into the future at the latest South African REIPPPP result (by 2030/2040/2050). Job numbers were also conservative (from McKinsey study commissioned by the DoE in the context of the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) but adjusting upwards for coal power generation
and coal mining.

(Ed. note: The CSIR uses the same energy modeling software – Plexos – as is used by the DOE and Eskom)

The result of this is that it is least cost for any new investment in the power sector to be solar PV, wind or flexible power. Solar PV, wind and flexible power generators (eg gas, CSP, hydro, biogas) are the cheapest new-build mix. There is no technical limitation to solar PV and wind penetration over the planning horizon until 2050. A >70% renewable energy share by 2050 is cost optimal, replacing all plants that decommission over time and meeting new demand with the new optimal mix.

(Ed. note: The CSIR modeling does not exclude any specific technology, meaning that nuclear was not chosen by the model because it was too expensive and was unnecessary)

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